Effects of Demographic changes

 How Population change can divide the Country (Analysis) 

In this thread we will take three case studies of-

1. East Timor

2. South Sudan

3. Kosova

and will talk abt step by step process of how demographic change can divide the country. Yesterday P.P Mohan Bhagwatji in his dussehra speech said that population change can divide the country and India sud seriously think abt demography change. He gave example of East timor, South Sudan and Kosovo.

Lets discuss what happened in these countries- 

Case study 1 : East Timor 

East Timor was part of Indonesia. In colonial era it was captured by Portugal and then Japan but in 1975, It was merged again in Indonesia.

Dictator of Indonesia was Suharto that time. 

Indonesia has the highest muslims in the world. Suharto was Muslim but initially he was secular Muslim. East Timor region was mainly Muslim majority in 1975. There was 20% Christians in that time.

Its considered Suharto was most corrupt dictator. Poverty spread in east timor and Christian missionary took benefit of it .Religious conversion started at huge level.

Christianity that was 20% in 1975 increased to 95% in 1990. Pope visited there in 1989.

Nobel peace prize was given to Bishop Carlos who was responsible for conversion in east Timor. Conflicts started between Indonesian muslim and timor catholic. East Timor catholic demanded separate country for them. 

Huge violence occurred in 1999 and finally in pressure of Timor people and international community, Indonesia had to agree on referendum. UN took control on East Timor in 1999.

In the referendum 78% people voted for separate country and Indonesia was divided in 2 parts and East Timor became separate country. 

Case Study 2 : South Sudan

Sudan was a islamic african country with 97% Mslm. Southern part of Sudan contains lot of oil fields.

 In 1990 there were less than 5% Christians in south Sudan and then again started the same game of religious conversion. By 2011 there were 61% christians in South part of Sudan.

Civil war started between Sudan Mslm and South Sudan christians. South Sudan people formed Sudan revolution Party.Sudan faced biggest civil war of history. Millions of people were killed n displaced. 

In the observation of UNSC, referendum was carried out in 2011 n in which South Sudan people chose a separate country and Sudan was divided in 2 parts and

South Sudan became a new country. Case 

Study 3 : Kosovo

Kosovo was part of Fed Republic of Yugoslavia and after dissolution of Yugoslavia, It became part of Serbia (Europe)

There were 2 major ethnic communities :

Serbs and Albanians 

Serbs were mostly orthodox Christian and Albanian were Muslims. Due to high birth rate of Albanians their population started to increase in Kosova region.

In 1921 they were 65% but by 1991 they were more than 82%.

Sebs population was less in that region but there was a very important church there. Kosova albanian raised the issues of human rights violation and ethical cleansing and started civil war.

It started with student protest and took shape of civil war.

They formed a Kosovo Liberation Army .From Feb 1998 to June 1999 a war happened between Serbia's Fed republic of Yugoslavia and KLA and lot of people were killed.

2 lac serbs fled from Kosovo.

NATO had to intervene and in 1999 NATO did bombing on Yugoslavian army.

UN and NATO forces took over on Kosovo. A provisional govt was formed in 2001 and in 2008, Kosovo became separate country.

Serbia was divided in 2 parts and in later in 2006, one more referendum happened in Montenegro part of Serbia and Serbia was further divided. 

So if we analyse all 3 case studies. We can find following common points

Step 1 : demography change in one area

Step 2 : majority community of that area complains for human right violation, economic disparity, partiality

Step 3 : Protest starts

Step 4 : State retaliate and crush protests

Step 5 : Protest turns into civil war

Step 6 : International pressure

Step 7 : referendum for separate state

Step 8 : Separate state.

Now after u have gone through all these case studies. Then analyse What's happening or what was happening in different parts of India n what can happen in future ?

Specially

Kashmir, Punjab, NE, Kerala, TN, WB

Why Modi never used force in farmer protest ?

And what should India do to avoid any extreme situation ?