Gwadar Port- A Disaster

 Pakistan's Gwadar Port was supposed to be a nightmare for India

Built by China, Gwadar was going to counter the India in the Indian Ocean

Some called Gwadar "the next Dubai"

BUT, this strategic asset is in chaos

From terror attacks to protests, Gwadar is paralyzed

Gwadar was once just a small fishing village

Located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, Gwadar belonged to the Sultanate of Oman

In 1954, a US geological survey found that Gwadar was suitable for a deep-water port

In 1958, Pakistan purchased it from Oman for $3 million. For decades nothing really happened

America was offered the chance to develop Gwadar in the 1970s, Things changed in the 1990s as 🇮🇳's naval capabilities grew

PAK needed alternatives to existing ports like Karachi which could be blockaded by 🇮🇳's increasingly powerful navy. Things changed for Gwadar once China entered the picture

In 2001, 🇨🇳 announced that it would develop Gwadar & provide $198 million.

The China Harbour Engineering Company finished the first phase of developing the port in 2006.

So why was China even interested in Gwadar? 

1⃣. Making "the next Dubai"

The hopeful vision for Gwadar was to make it “a bustling city of two million people with a $30 billion GDP and 1.2 million high paid jobs”

PAK hoped to import China's "port-industrial park-city" model which had transformed cities like Shenzhen. Gwadar could also deepen China & PAK's economic ties with Central Asia.

By building a ton of roads & railways, the hope was to connect Gwadar to Xin & C. Asian countries. This would bring development to Gwadar (in Baluchistan province) & China's Xinjiang 

2⃣. The Malacca Dilemma

China imported about 72% of its oil needs in 2021. Around 70-85% of those oil imports flow through the Straits of Malacca, near Indonesia.

This makes 🇨🇳's energy trade vulnerable to disruption & blockades from unfriendly powers. Pakistani analysts claimed that Gwadar could be a solution to that. Tankers could dock at Gwadar bearing oil from Middle-Eastern nations, which could be piped from Gwadar all the way to China.

This would make 🇨🇳's energy trade less vulnerable to disruption

3⃣. Power Projection

Some speculated that Gwadar could be a "dual-use" facility for China. These refer to ports that can be used for both commercial & military purposes. As 🇨🇳's navy grows more powerful, Gwadar could allow it to project power in the Indian Ocean. “Gwadar port will become a logistics support base for supplies and maintenance along the route of large fleet when the Chinese naval fleet goes to the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and the Gulf of Aden,” said Pei Yuanying, a former Chinese Ambassador to India. For Pakistan, Gwadar was set to become a "third naval base". Since 🇮🇳 blockaded Karachi Port in the 1971 War & could again in the future, PAK is looking for alternatives. Gwadar, which is located further west than Karachi, near Iran, could allow the PAK Navy more options. Gwadar became the flagship project of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

This was a $62 billion project announced in 2015

CPEC was planned to be a 3000-km infrastructure network linking China's Kashgar to Gwadar. So Gwadar was CPEC's crown jewel.

However, Gwadar has been a disappointment on all fronts

1⃣. The Next Dubai

Gwadar has failed to deliver on its economic promises.A major reason is that development of the port has stalled since the first phase was completed in 2006. Gwadar was supposed to be deepened further. It was also set to acquire an oil terminal, container berths & a bulk cargo terminal. This second phase of development was estimated to cost between $600mn-$1 billion, It was never taken up.

Instead, the project was plagued by property disputes b/w port operators & PAK Navy. Without this development, the port was hardly used for trade. Between 2008-2016, "only 176 ships and 6.3 million tons of cargo had been handled" by Gwadar. Meanwhile Karachi Port "handles 26 million tons of cargo per year and about 1600 ships annually." Gwadar is located in Baluchistan Province and is far away from industrial centres. Infrastructure links to the rest of Pakistan, let alone China, are few and far between. Gwadar has a massive water and electric power shortage. Gwadar actually relies on power imports from Iran. Gwadar is also located in Balochistan, which has seen active insurgencies against the PAK govt. 

Citizens in the province fear that their land has been taken over even as little promised economic development has taken place. This has led to large protests in Gwadar. The focus of their discontent has also been on China

Last Sunday, armed insurgents in the provinces killed four Chinese nationals in an attack.

This was just the latest in a string of attacks targeting Chinese citizens in Gwadar

Lack of security has made Gwadar an uncertain bet.

2⃣. Malacca Dilemma

Analysts also believe that using Gwadar to reduce China's dependence on Malacca is a non-starter. First off, because Gwadar's development stalled, it doesn't have the capacity to handle large oil tankers.

Second, sending oil overland from PAK to China would.. ...need major infra investments over difficult terrain

PAK's govt has neither the money nor the capacity to build this.

Third, even if it did, sending oil overland from Gwadar to China would cost about 4-5 times what the sea route to Shanghai costs

So Gwadar is an economic dud. 

3⃣. Defence base

A 2020 US Naval War College study found that Gwadar could serve as a logistics hub for China's navy. However, Gwadar is far from China's first choice . That's because the PLA Navy has considerably experience using the well-developed Karachi Port. Karachi is already the PLA Navy's main repair facility in the Indian Ocean. It also has repair, maintenance & logistics facilities that Gwadar does not. It is also likely to receive funds for development given it is an established port. By contrast, Gwadar has been neglected. 

 Gwadar city was gifted from the Khan of Kalat (then princely state now Balochistan)  to the Sultan of Oman in 1783. In 1958 Oman sold it to Pakistan but first made the offer to India. Nehru declined. Yet another display of lack of strategic foresight.